US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan on August 2, despite China’s protests and warnings, will serve as a major provocation against China and a notable event in world politics. Events around Taiwan continue to unfold, until it is clear where they will lead. Opinions vary, from the victory of democracy and China’s relegation to the ranks of political minor powers, to stupidity with dire consequences for the US.
My opinion about this incident and its possible consequences.
A bit of history to clarify the issue.
The separation of Taiwan from China occurred after the victory of the Chinese Communist Party over the traditional political system that developed in China at the end of the colonial period, the nationalist Kuomintang party, represented mainly by the remnants of the feudal aristocracy, wealthy bourgeois and landowners. As a result of the civil war, supporters of the Nationalists moved to Taiwan, where they were covered from the attacks of the Communists by the US Navy. China did not have any significant fleet at that time, and it had to put up with it.
In the first decades, during the reign of Mao Zedong, the communist system in China took a radical form. With ridiculous attempts to drive economic reforms by village methods, «The Period of the Great Leap Forward.» Or repressions against the intelligentsia and progressives «Cultural Revolution». China was a backward, agrarian country plunged into poverty.
Taiwan, against the backdrop of Maoist China, won in terms of organization and living standards. After the defeat of the Kuomintang on the mainland, the “cream of society” of the nationalists moved to Taiwan, people with money, education, and management experience. Such as the remnants of the feudal aristocracy, entrepreneurs, professional military. They created a more adequate political system, which in the early decades was the dictatorship of the Kuomintang party under Chiang Kai-shek, at the same time as Maoist China. The dictatorship of the Kuomintang was as totalitarian as that of the early Maoists, the total power of the ruling party, the suppression of freedoms, repression, the shooting of uprisings by the military. Later, Taiwan’s ruling circles switched to a multi-party system. The first elections in Taiwan were held in 1996 and won by Li Tenghui, chairman of the Kuomintang Party. Taiwan had access to investments and technologies from developed countries, to their education system. Taiwan is in an advantageous position for trade. Thanks to the best starting potential and support from the West, Taiwan overtook the development of Maoist mainland China and at the beginning of the 21st century approached the developed countries of Asia in terms of living standards.
Cooperation with the West was beneficial to Taiwan, as it provided support and protection. Until recently, until China surpassed the United States in economic power and became a more profitable economic and strategic partner. For the United States, the protectorate over Taiwan was beneficial in terms of military presence and influence in the region, since Taiwan serves as a US foothold off the coast of China.
In mainland China, after the death of Mao Zedong in the late seventies, progressive technocrats came to power under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, who began political and economic reforms. They removed the total control of the state in the economy, began to stimulate the development of business and technology.
The Chinese reformers did not abolish the one-party system; as a result, China has developed a hybrid political model, a complex of partyocracy and democracy. Society received more freedom, private enterprise received freedom, but political power remained in the hands of the Communist Party and government officials. The Chinese system proved to be more effective than pure communism and pure democracy. Since centralized government is good at developing large-scale industry and infrastructure, private business is good at developing the production of consumer goods. At the same time, an oligarchy class has not been formed in China, concentrating large capitals and political power in its hands, which is a source of internal decay in countries with a pure democratic system.
The democratic system in its modern form is declared as the power of society, but in fact it is the power of big capital, groups of bank and corporation owners who have subjugated the state and society. The oligarchy, in fact, is the ruling class, and like any other ruling class, in order to strengthen its power, it suppresses society and progress, but it cannot suppress society by direct force, since it declares its power as democracy, therefore it weakens the state and society by internal decomposition. At the same time, the oligarchy degrades itself, due to the lack of competition and discipline, and the degenerative tendencies that it spreads in society return to it like a boomerang. Which ultimately leads to the degradation of the entire system.
Thanks to the comprehensive political model, the Communist Party’s leadership in politics and the management of private entrepreneurs in the economy, China’s economy has enjoyed high growth since the beginning of Xiaoping’s reforms until recently.
At the beginning of the Progressive reforms, the Chinese Communist Party moved closer to the United States and the West. China agreed to the role of a second-rate country — an industrial zone for the transfer of production there from the USA and Europe, where they made big profits due to cheap labor. Over the past forty years, China has developed as an industrial zone country, a periphery of the West, and this role has given it a large influx of investment, access to Western markets and industrial growth.
But in the last decade, China has grown stronger, it has long been not a village of Maoists, but the flagship of world development, with the strongest industry, with the most effective political system. China is no longer satisfied with the role of the US periphery. If before, he gradually increased his sovereignty, without entering into conflicts with the United States, accepting their conditions as a political partner. Now, when China is the strongest industrial economy of the world, which is on the rise, and the United States decays and weakens every year, China began to openly declare its sovereignty, and strive to pursue a completely independent policy.
The United States during the Mao period recognized Taiwan and did not recognize mainland China. When the progressives came to power in China and went for rapprochement with America, the United States recognized mainland China as one and indivisible, but at the same time left Taiwan as its protectorate and military satellite.
For the Chinese, Taiwan separated from them is a sore point. This is a significant piece of the country’s territory, which was cut off from it, and besides, it was turned into an enemy military base off its coast. For a period of growth, a partnership was agreed with the enemy, but this cannot last forever. Whenever Taiwan should be annexed to China. It is desirable for the Chinese to annex Taiwan without war, through economic and political unification. And the rapprochement went on, the Chinese Communist Party agreed with the Kuomintang Party on cooperation and integration. But the «Democratic Progressive Party of Taiwan», which advocates the democratization and declaration of Taiwan’s independence, intervened in the integration. In this situation, playing the role of a puppet of the United States, since Taiwan can be either a US base or a Chinese base, it has no other options, such a geographic location. Theoretically, Taiwan can be independent if the US and China agree to make it a demilitarized zone free from political influence, but this is practically impossible, control over Taiwan is vital for both sides. In this confrontation, Taiwan must choose a side.
Nancy Pelosi, one of the main experts in the organization of color revolutions, that is, the establishment of puppet governments or colonial seizures under the slogan of spreading democracy. And the purpose of her recent visit to Taiwan was to negotiate with the leadership of the Democratic Progressive Party and the elite, in order to block the integration of China and Taiwan. This is against the background of a long-standing trade war with China, by the United States, which is being waged in order to suspend its economic and technological development.
The situation from a political point of view, which is not in the past, but is being solved now.
China has grown to the position of a world industrial power, the flagship of world development, almost agreed with the Taiwanese elite on integration, most likely the United States had agreements with China on non-interference in Taiwan’s politics earlier. But now the United States, in violation of the agreements and its obligations, is trying to pull Taiwan under its direct control. Why do they need Taiwan from a military point of view? As a base for a fleet in the China Sea, for a war or a sea trade blockade. This is not only a betrayal, but also a preparation for military aggression.
Naturally, China’s reaction to this incident is negative.
The Chinese, a few days before the announced visit of Nancy Pelosi, protested and warned the US of serious consequences, although they did not say what exactly, military, economic, or political. They began to draw troops to the coast and surround Taiwan with groupings of ships, but the visit took place, although not the first time and with some precautions.
In the Western media, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was covered as a victory for democracy, a demonstration of American power. And it can be considered a moral victory for the US Democratic Party and for Western-style democracy in the world.
China reacted to the visit first with warnings, then with political statements, pulled up the army to the coast, began military exercises of the fleet around Taiwan. From a philistine point of view, this looks like preparations for an armed takeover of Taiwan. And from a philistine point of view, China looks like a weakling. At first he gave warnings of a tough response, then he let Pelosi’s plane into the island and limited himself to regular political statements. But China does not need a war, it is already on the rise, growing stronger every year, Taiwan is steadily integrating into the Chinese economy. Why would the Chinese take over the Taiwanese by force, turning them against them for a long time, or get involved in a military confrontation with the United States that will undermine their economy?
Pelosi’s arrival in Taiwan is not a red line that should be followed by a military response. Yes, it will pull the Taiwanese elite and society to the side of the United States, but such a pull is constantly going on, both from the American and from the Chinese side. In this case, it was more visual, but what difference does it make.
The visit of a major US agitator to Taiwan does not pose a military threat to China, it only increases political tension. A military threat could be created by the deployment of large American military bases in Taiwan, the massive supply of modern heavy weapons to Taiwan, and the transfer of nuclear weapons to Taiwan. Similar to the situation in Ukraine before the war, the negotiations on the admission of Ukraine to NATO, the massive supply of heavy weapons and the transfer of nuclear weapons. Such a situation would be unacceptable for China and could provoke the takeover of Taiwan by force.
In this case, rather, there is an aggravated political confrontation with a demonstration of military power, in which both sides are trying to score political points for themselves.
The United States drove an aircraft carrier group to Taiwan, the Chinese, after harsh warnings, did not answer, hurray, we are the winners, China is disgraced!
China, held a promotion of its military power for Taiwan. Look, we are closer, our economy is stronger, military power is not inferior to the United States, their aircraft carriers have not been a thunderstorm for a long time, but only a convenient target for anti-ship missiles, go under our protectorate and this power will be on your side.
For its population, the Chinese Communist Party did everything to make Pelosi’s visit memorable, and remembered as a national humiliation, so that the Chinese society longed for revenge for decades to come. Only this revenge with a high probability will not be in the form of a war, but in the form of a dissolution of the political and economic relationship with the United States, in the form of a long and methodical build-up of forces, and in the form of many small minor troubles that China can cause the United States. For Chinese society, the US is no longer a partner, it is an adversary.
The results of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan as I see them.
For the US Democratic Party, this is a moral victory, which will probably bring them additional points in the next elections.
For world politics, this is the final withdrawal of China from the zone of influence of the United States and the Western bloc, turning it into a sovereign center of power. If earlier China agreed to the role of a junior, and then an equal partner of the United States, then from August 2 it became their opponent. The Chinese will not start a war or a tough political confrontation, it is not profitable and risky, but from that moment on they will stop political interaction with the United States, withdraw from political agreements against the countries of the Eurasian Union. They will begin to methodically reduce economic interaction with the United States, they will withdraw their investments and assets, introduce customs duties, and reduce exports. There will be fewer Chinese consumer goods in the United States, they will become more expensive, the standard of living of ordinary Americans will fall from this, in the event of a political aggravation, China may generally block imports to Western countries, which will cause economic collapse and social upheaval. The possible positive consequences of the divergence with China for the American economy are the growth of industry and the real sector, in the political field this will strengthen the positions of the Trumpists and progressive technocrats.
In terms of China’s domestic politics, Pelosi’s visit was intended to weaken the position of Xi Jinping and the sovereignty-oriented national bloc of the Communist Party. And at the same time to strengthen the position of the pro-American opposition in China, represented mainly by groups of influential merchants. It was an attempt to portray Xi as a weakling, able only to talk and shake his military fists, but not able to stop the actions of the Americans. But in reality, she wanted to stick a moral pin in Xi’s ass, but she stuck it all over the Chinese people. Xi acted appropriately in this situation, he could have shot down the plane with Nancy, he could have drowned the aircraft carrier group, but no one needs a war with America in China. He could give the order to advance on Taiwan, but no one needs his capture either, only in case of critical need. The US Democratic Party defiantly made it clear to the Chinese society that it does not put it in anything, your chairman is yap, do not show off, go sew panties and socks for us. She humiliated the Chinese. Xi replied, we are ready for the challenge, we’ll see who ends up being stronger. He acted as a leader on the course of sovereignty and the struggle for national interests. Pro-American groups promise people freedom, benefits and dignity, but freedom, in their understanding, is the freedom to work in American enterprises without days off, the traders receive the benefits. Dignity? They were recently given to understand that they are second-rate servants and will always be in the eyes of the Western oligarchy. Which party will the Chinese society rally around? I think the answer is obvious.
After splitting with the Western bloc, China will begin close cooperation with the countries of the Eurasian Union, for which it is the leader. By closer economic cooperation with the countries of Eurasia, and the developing countries of Latin America and Africa, China will compensate for the withdrawal from the markets of America and Western Europe. In a political sense, the Eurasian Union will become stronger and more united from this. In the last two decades, attempts by the Western side to put pressure on the Eurasian Union have led to its strengthening. The Ukrainian war, provoked in order to destroy the economy of Russia and Western Europe, to put them under the control of the United States, achieved its goal only in Europe, it strengthened Russia, as well as previous sanctions. China, as a result of previous trade wars with Europe and the United States, has drawn the necessary conclusions for itself,
Outcome.
The gain for Nancy Pelosi and the US Democratic Party from her flight to Taiwan is situational and moral, designed for domestic consumers, residents of the US and Europe.
In the broader and longer term, it is a defeat. The loss of the possibility of political influence on China, the strengthening of the Eurasian Union, which surpasses the United States in economic, military power and resources. Transition to the zone of influence of the Eurasian Union of most countries of Latin America and Africa.
Pelosi wanted to tear Taiwan away from China, but she pulled China away from the US. She wanted to weaken Xi Jinping’s rating and encourage the pro-American opposition in China, but the Chinese society will now rally around the party, seeing it as the only defender of national interests, and the pro-American groups will lose their reliance on society. I wanted to point out to China its place as an American industrial zone, but it got an adversary and a competitor, who now will not take into account the opinion of the United States, but will take revenge on them for a long time.
Nikolai Agapov.